Apocalypse
The end of the world as described by early Jewish or Christian texts – most notably the book of Revelations. Also used to refer to nuclear Armageddon or any cataclysmic event without the religious implications. Survivalist terms often include (1) TEOTWAWKI – “the end of the world as we know it,” (2) Collapse – systemic failure of one or more critical systems including finance, the grid, agriculture, international trade, rule of law, etc. (3) SHFT – “shit hits the fan” meaning a serious but perhaps less catastrophic event that upends normal living.
It such an event possible? Sure. Will we wake up one morning to mushroom clouds or rioters at the door? Probably not – we are more likely to experience a period of escalating tensions and government attempts to control things in the short term. The slow boil we are seeing now will probably intensify over the coming months.
On the other hand, it is almost certain that something will happen to change the trajectory of our country and lifestyle. Most people, regardless of their political views, sense the loss of faith in the media, in our institutions and with each other. Nothing seems to make sense when we consider:
· COVID - The organizational confusion and missteps along with the suppression of any dissenting information.
· The uncontrolled migration across our southern border - resulting in massive stress on cities and long-term impacts to our culture.
· Increasing lawlessness as violent suspects are released without bail.
· The woke culture and organizational DEI initiatives (diversity, equity, and inclusion) that cannot define a man or woman, normalize drag shows for children and reject competency as a basis for hiring.
· Weaponization of the justice system to violate the constitutional rights of Jan 6th participants while failing to act on violent protests by ANTIFA.
· Dumbing down of our educational system and capture of our youth by social media.
And this only what the media reports! As we shall see later, the important issues are NOT being discussed in public.
This apparent insanity is not without precedent. In the book “The Fourth Turning,” authors Strauss and Howe analyze a recurring pattern that takes place over a “saeculum” – the length of a long human life (80 to 110 years). Throughout recorded history (back to the Roman Empire) a major crisis has occurred every 80+ years in every nation or empire. Between crises, there are 4 phases:
1. High – occurs immediately after a crisis and is characterized by strong institutions and high degree of faith and conformity.
2. Awakening – when institutions are challenged by young adults who pursue finding their personal and spiritual autonomy.
3. Unraveling – institutions become weak and distrusted while individualism is strong.
4. Crisis – destruction of existing institutions / countries - almost always including warfare.
In American history, our previous crises have been the Revolution, the Civil War, and the Great Depression / World War II. This year marks 79 years since the end of WWII and, based on their research, we are in the next crisis phase. Another way to look at this cycle is the popular saying – Bad times make strong men, strong men make good times, good times make weak men, weak men make bad times.
Returning the Apocalypse – the book of Revelations refers to 4 horsemen that create the destruction. These are interpreted as pestilence (disease), war, famine, and death – with death representing the outcome from the prior 3. Interestingly, the best analysis of what is really going on in the modern world – especially in the “western” nations – also involves 3 major categories. In his book “The Crash Course,” Chris Martenson outlines why the following trends are unsustainable:
1. Our economy is based on debt to finance continued growth. Since the 70’s, however, the debt has been growing at an exponential rate that is far faster than the underlying economy. Interest on just the national debt (without considering corporate debt, household debt or unfunded liabilities like pensions) is now about $1 trillion per year. Despite this burden, the federal government continues to spend far more than it receives in taxes. This is done in the name of progressive programs and national defense without regard for the consequences – which many people now believe will never arrive. Throughout history, however, whenever a country has debased its currency, the result has always been financial ruin.
2. Energy is the most important resource – since economic activity is directly proportional to energy consumption. Worldwide growth is demanding more energy but we have exploited the majority of easily accessible (cheap) oil reserves and are now relying on deeper offshore drilling and shale oil to expand production. Fracking has released previously unavailable oil but requires drilling thousands of feet deep, then thousands of feet horizontally followed by injection of high-pressure fluids to break up the rock. And after all that complexity and expense - the wells deplete by 40% per year. As a result, fossil fuels will continue to become more costly and eventually reach peak production. Some people argue that human ingenuity will solve these problems and keep oil flowing for at least many more decades – but they are basing this on the assumption that we can always innovate our way to success. Another argument is that renewable resources, especially solar, will solve the problem and stop climate change. Unfortunately, a recent analysis has demonstrated that the resources needed to electrify everything are vastly larger than our capacity for mining and refining and, in some cases, beyond reserves in the ground. In terms of 2019 production levels – the analysis shows we would need about 200 years’ worth of copper, 400 years of nickel, 10,000 years of lithium, etc.
3. The third element is the Environment – by which we mean natural resources rather than climate change. As the analysis of solar energy pointed out above, our demand for minerals is growing in response to both the size of western economies and the growth of developing nations. At the same time, population growth is driving “modern” agriculture – destroying the soil with reliance on artificial fertilizer, depleting our natural aquifers to provide irrigation and exposing people and the environment to numerous toxins in pesticides and herbicides.
Bottom line, we have structured a “Catch 22” (self-contradicting, unsolvable situation). The economic system does not work without expanding debt - which requires an expanding economy - which requires more energy and natural resources. But energy and natural resources have finite supply, are becoming increasing expensive and will eventually be in decline. The short form according to Chris Martenson is “Infinite growth on a finite planet doesn’t work.” Another form is “Too many people chasing too few resources.”
For me, this analysis demonstrates that our current complex systems – international trade, energy, agriculture, government, etc. – cannot continue in their current form. Yes, if we have cold fusion tomorrow, we can delay the energy problem. But (1) it would probably cause us to consume other limited resources even more quickly and (2) there is no way such technology can be commercialized at scale fast enough.
As a result, I am convinced that this fourth turning will be far more dangerous than previous events. We are facing huge economic stress and depletion of energy / natural resources at the same time we have over 8 billion people in the world and weapons capable of destroying civilization. What could possibly go wrong? Will it be an apocalypse? No one can answer that question. We cannot know what, when or how things will unfold. We do know, however, that the “system” cannot survive in its current format. The next question is: how do we deal with the crisis and transition to something more sustainable?
You can find much more in my book “Thriving in Times of Chaos” available on Amazon. It provides time-phased actions to become more sustainable in any location along with links to additional information and useful products. A more complete description of the book along with a PDF version are available on my website.
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