Evaluating Preparedness through Family Scenarios
There are various approaches to being better prepared for an uncertain future. Imagine 4 different families looking to heat their home.
Family A has a conventional heating system, an oversize oil/propane tank to last for a full season, and a backup generator with 50 gal of gas.
Family B has an outdoor wood boiler, buys logs, and uses a chainsaw and gas splitter to build a stockpile of wood every fall. They have a solar generator to provide electricity.
Family C has an indoor, freestanding wood stove and harvests wood from their property using a chainsaw and splitter. They have backup hand saws and splitting mauls.
Family D has bugged out from the city a remote national park. Living in a hand-built shelter, they gather wood daily with an axe and use flint & steel to start their fires.
Who is the winner in this situation?
Family A will do fine in a short-term event followed by a full recovery. They are, however, out of balance on stored fuel. A typical 7500-watt gas generator will use about 1.2 gal of fuel per hour. Assuming they can get by with only 2 hours of run time per day for heating, refrigeration, and critical appliances – they will use about 2.5 gal per day. The 50 gal of gas is only good for 20 days versus their full year of oil/propane. In a long-term event, they are dependent on both gas and heating fuel availability.
Family B is better prepared for a long crisis assuming they can store lots of firewood. They have also removed their dependence on gas for the generator by having a solar option to run the circulating pumps on the outdoor boiler. They are still dependent on gas, oil and spare parts for their chainsaw and splitter. If an event lasts long enough, they may not be able to get these items or another delivery of logs.
Family C is very well positioned since they are heating without any need for electricity and have their own wood supply. They have also backed up their chainsaw and splitter with manual items that require very little maintenance (a file for sharpening). The downside is the amount of work required to harvest, prepare, and move the wood.
Family D is screwed. It may sound romantic to folks in their 20’s - 30’s to learn primitive survival skills and “live off the land” – but this is very unrealistic. Starting a fire with flint & steel is a useful backup skill in case you get stranded in the wilderness – it is not a sustainable option. A life of foraging for food, water and energy is almost impossible without a larger tribe of people working together in a mild climate without serious threats.
In summary, I certainly appreciate modern heating systems but you only get short term resilience from stored fuel (or any stored consumable such as food). The best situation would be a combination of A, B & C – where you have the option to heat with fossil fuel plus the ability to use stored wood and have a sustainable source of wood / heat that is not dependent on electricity.
Preparing for the Worst-Case Scenario
Regardless of what aspect of preparedness you consider, evaluate what would happen if there were no electricity, fossil fuel or transportation. This will highlight areas where you are dependent on the “System” (modern economy, grid, and supply chain). If you cannot get food, fuel, spare parts, fertilizer, animal feed, etc. what will you do? For each area - have a backup source or workaround in case we face a prolonged crisis.
You can find much more in my book “Thriving in Times of Chaos” available on Amazon. It provides time-phased actions to become more sustainable in any location along with links to additional information and useful products. A more complete description of the book along with a PDF version are available on my website.
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